FIXING THE AL MVP RACE

    And yes, we mean "fix" in just the way you think we mean it.

    Look, here's the bottom line--these seasonal awards have become more clotted than month-old cream. There continues to be a raging disconnect between the BBWAA and the blogosphere in terms of the criteria involved in voting for them.

    Hue and cry over these awards is the type of fallout that most folks would lump into the "there's no such thing as bad publicity" dustbin, but the problem is that none of this can actually close the gap between the "modeled value" calculations of the numbers crowd and the intuitive shell game that is the BBWAA voting process.

    This perpetually periodic Mexican standoff isn't always a catastrophe--let's face it, the BBWAA isn't quite that bad at their job--but there are years in which this situation just comes up against a brick wall. Somewhere between 20-30% of all seasonal awards become accident victims in a pileup of conflicting factors, where no one can reasonably discriminate between prospective candidates.

    Count the 2011 AL Most Valuable Player race as the latest Perfect Storm Scenario. With a month left in the season, things are shaping themselves into at least a three-player photo finish:

    Jose Bautista, Toronto
    Adrian Gonzalez, Boston
    Curtis Granderson, New York

    (There are some out there that want to add the Tigers' Justin Verlander to this group. As fine a year as Justin is having, his only chance to be in that discussion would be for him to win 25 games--a bitter irony to those who have staked their careers on the notion that pitcher wins are meaningless.)

    Constituencies are already forming around these three, and countless metric tons of bandwith will be expended by those arguing their cases over the next six to eight weeks. We won't try to paraphrase these arguments here: that would be almost as tiresome as what's going to be flying around as the season winds down. What we can do is simply summarize the specific strong points for the candidates:

    Bautista (home runs, OBP, SLG, OPS+)
    Gonzalez (RBI, batting average, doubles, OBP, playoff team)
    Granderson (home runs, triples, XBH, runs scored, RBI, stolen bases, playoff team)

    Any and all "weighting systems" that attempt to tease out anything resembling a significant gap between these players--including Wins Above Replacement--are floating in the fog.

    Assuming these players' performance strengths remain the same at season's end, two of them are going to be cheated.

    At this moment, they are each MVPs.

    The best thing we can tell the writers to do is to rig the vote. That's right, rig it.

    Of course, the one time they rigged it (1979 NL MVP), the BBWAA didn't go far enough...they decided that Willie Stargell deserved a lifetime award ahead of his enshrinement in the Hall, and they rightly admired the unique hitting peak of Keith Hernandez.

    Problem is that they should have handed a third piece of hardware to Dave Winfield.

    But, of course, if they'd done that, people would have said that they'd rigged it.

    And, naturally, we can't rig anything in this country.

    Of course not.

    Anyway--we've grown up a lot since 1979. We know better now. So we should just agree right now that the MVP candidate pool is too big to fail and we should just rig it.

    Just throw a blanket over the whole thing and give the Three Amigos their diamond-studded earrings and free Range Rovers from Bud's car lot.

    It worked for the 1981 World Series. The writers simply decided that three Dodgers were each deserving of the MVP award, and they handed one out to Ron Cey, one to Steve Yeager, and one to Pedro Guerrero.

    Is that a lousy example? Sure it is: it's not a full season, it's just six games. Things can't be expected to sort out in six games.

    But sometimes they don't sort out in 162 games, either. When it becomes crashingly obvious that it doesn't, the BBWAA needs to invoke a hitherto unnoticed clause in their voting rules--the "Too Close to Call" clause.

    Sometimes you've got to not try to stop the buck, you've got to pass it. At this moment, it looks like the 2011 AL MVP race is just such a scenario.

Mixed Proportions

    O tamanho/ proporção é algo absolutamente relativo, como a cor que depende da luz, a  importância de cada elemento depende da relação que estabelece com o que o rodeia, aliás se pensarmos bem esta relação é válida para quase tudo, a importância que atribuimos a cada acontecimento passa muito pela experiência ou desconhecimento de uma situação similar, por isso os nossos olhos facilmente são ludibriados se nos mostrarem apenas uma parte do cenário...

    The size/proportion of something is absolutely relative, as the color depends of the existence of light, the size/importance of each element depends on the relationship established with the surroundings, by the way if you think about that, this relationship is valid for almost everything, so our eyes are easily deceived if we show only a part of the picture ...





    source: fashiongonerogue / www.timwalkerphotography.com / Claes Oldenburg sculpture; source: www.poulwebb.blogspot.com 

60'S REMIXED

    Os anos 60 misturados e remisturados pelas riscas "Pradianas"...a lembrar a velhinha mira técnica do final da emissão vista através da clássica televisão com caixa de raiz de nogueira,cujos últimos espécimes ainda vão resistindo,lol...no tempo em que " the video killed the radio star"
    ...
    cor pura e energia em dose massiva que resulta sempre...

    The 60´s mixed and remixed by "Prada's stripes" ... color and energy!!






    Source: fashiongonerogue: Renata Sozzi by Bob Wolfenson for Criativa Magazine


ICHIRO's 200: FIGURING THE ODDS

    It's no longer a record that means much to the so-called "thinking fan." 200 hits is just an arbitrary round number, reserved for spinsters and singles hitters--who, in the post-modern world of swing-from-the-heels offense, have been made pretty much equivalent.

    And let's face it--as a total package Ichiro! Suzuki ain't exactly Rod Carew, or Wade Boggs, or even Tony Gwynn. Despite setting baseball's all-time single season hits record, Ichiro! is a pale rider on a pale horse that even an all-day baseball sucker like Marianne Moore would refrain from twisting her knickers about.

    He is just a singles machine, a more inscrutable version of Pete Rose--and it's ol' Pestilent Pete himself who dialed this topic up with another of his "eight the hard way" quotes.

    "I don't think he's gonna do it," said the ever-eloquent Rose--meaning Ichiro! and his quest for an eleventh consecutive 200-hit season. Pete, of course, is currently tied with Suzuki for the most 200+-hit seasons, though he didn't collect his consecutively.

    Ichiro! is 54 hits away from 200 this year, with 33 games to play. At 37, he's showing tangible signs of decline, with a batting average hovering around .270, a sudden inability to hit against power pitchers (he's hitting just .191 against them in 2011--with a pitiful .461 OPS).

    But--all that being the case, it's probably worth the effort to calculate Suzuki's chances to get back to 200 this season.

    The way we're going to do that is the way we always do these things around here--which is to look at a couple of strange charts that may or may not mean anything to anyone else. First, let's find out how often Ichiro has managed to amass 54 hits in 33 games over the course of his career with the Mariners.

    We've examined his game logs, and calculated the distribution of his 33-game hit totals. There are 1684 of these data points in Suzuki's career as of this morning (this is 8/25/11), and they are all represented herein. The range for Ichiro over 33 games is a low of 26 and a high of 75, with an median of 41 and an average of 46.

    If Ichiro! is able to reach his lifetime average for 33 games, he'll come up eight hits short in his quest for 200.

    Another way to look at that data is to note that Ichiro! has 304 33-game stretches over his career where he's had 54 or more hits. That's just a bit over 18% of his total number of 33-game stretches.

    So by that measure, his chances of getting 54+ hits over the remainder of the season is about one in five.

    Let's conclude this by looking at a rather spectacular variation on that distribution chart. Here's the full sequence of Ichiro's nearly 1700 33-game units, shown in career chronological order. This is a proxy for his 33-game batting average: we're just seeing it displayed in hits.

    You can see the ebb and flow (and we're getting into another chart that looks just a bit too disturbingly like the NYSE here), the great hot streaks and the precipitous cool-offs.

    The bad news for Ichiro! is that his lowest low (26 hits in 33 games) occurred during 2011.

    The good news is that he does seem to be mounting something of a comeback. He's pushed back over 40 in the last few 33-game units.

    Will Ichiro pull it together and prove capable of making what is clearly an almost vertical climb? Or is he like Walter Neff, the too-smart-for-his-own-good insurance salesman whose reach exceeded his grasp and wound up all washed up?

    As we always say at this point (because you asked for it!!)...

    Stay tuned.

White Swan / Black Swan

    A dualidade clássica; branco, preto, ying & yang tantas vezes mistificada e explorada em todos os seus significados... simples e complexa...

    The classical duality; white, black, ying & yang often mystified and explored in all its meanings ...






    source: fashiongonerogue: Rasa Zukauskaite by Paul de Luna for WestEast Magazine | Iris Strubegger by Alexi Lubomirski for Vogue Germany September 2011





DOTTED

    Para o próximo Inverno a moda recuperou o "ponto" central, o "núcleo", o "centro"...todos eles sinónimos da forma mais simples e elementar, o círculo, O PONTO...repetido até à exaustão, entre a memória de um universo mais infantil e a afirmação adulta da feminilidade, como em Stella McCartney, onde as pintas colocadas estrategicamente num vestido estruturado entre a transparência e a opacidade, alcançaram o mesmo poder do "power suit" do fato de alfaiataria que Stella reeinventou para o guarda-roupa feminino, talvez porque agora tal como noutras épocas, quando  as mulheres riscavam a carvão a marca da costura da collant que não tinham dinheiro para comprar, trata-se mais de recuperar e enaltecer o que nos distingue como mulheres do que dissolver as diferenças...

    For the next winter fashion recovered the "dot", the  "core", the "center" ... all of them synonymous of the simplest and most elementary element of geometry, the circle, the point ... repeated until exhaustion, between the memory of a childish universe and the adult affirmation of femininity, as at Stella McCartney collection, where the dots strategically placed on a structured dress between transparency and opacity, reached the same power of the "power suit" , perhaps because now as at other times we need to celebrate what distinguishes us as women rather to dissolve the differences ...










    source: elle.com / stellamaccartney.com

Rain Squad...Patrulha da Chuva

    Inspiração para um dia de chuva, como o de hoje!!

    Inspiration for a rainy day like today!!



    source: bloglovin

Playground Mix

    Um editorial absolutamente peculiar e inspirador... (nada monótono), uma abordagem divertida e despretensiosa à cor, à mistura de materiais e padrões (entre o clássico e o alternativo)...a modelo parece saída directamente de uma alfaiataria que aterrou num festival hippy dos anos 70,...(se é que isto faz algum sentido, liberdade à imaginação, lol)

    This editorial is absolutely quirky and inspiring...it makes a fun and unpretentious approach to color and mix of materials and patterns (between the classic and alternative)...the model seems have escaped from a tailor who landed in a hippy festival of the 70's ( if it makes any sense,lol)










    source: Le Fashion - Vogue Russia

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