Owl Time!


    Owl Time!...brrrr

    A Hora da Coruja!...brrr

    source: bloglovin | Tommy Ton

THE PTOLEMAIC MVP METHOD PART 3: THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

    Some comments on the World Series a bit later, we have some unfinished business before we slip into "Awards Season" in November.

    We'd discussed the Ptolemaic MVP Method earlier in the month and laid out the method in detail back in Part 2, which you can access here. We're going to move through the American League data rather swiftly here, but will try to refer to some of the points raised earlier.

    Briefly, each two month "epicycle" (see Part 2!!) awards points to players who excel in OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, and RBI. (The latter two are concessions--you can call them "sops" if you wish--to the "mainstream" world. While the sabe folks have made strides, it's also true that they tend to make it harder to drag the rest of the unconverted along.)

    These get added up over the course of the season from five interlocking two-month-long snapshots of hitter data (we'll address the issue of pitchers and the MVP below).

    What's interesting to note here is that two-month snapshots seem to prove that a third of a season is a sufficient "leveler" of achievement that you don't have a slew of fluky achievements in any of the stats being measured. We don't have six guys with 1.200+ OPS in every two-month snapshot (at least we didn't in 2010--it might be different back in 1996--we'll go back and check that out one of these days.)

    Let's get to the data. (Before we do that, however, let's note that the data here is courtesy of the extremely useful Day-By-Day Database that's available to all for free at David Pinto's Baseball Musings site. Here is April-May:


















    Brings us back to that blissful moment in time when Jose Bautista gave all of us another reason to realize why Keith Law was such a problematic choice to be the "pioneer" inside a major league front office and a dubious selection as a BBWAA member. Semi-cheap shot aside, there's still time for the overall deal that the Blue Jays (ironically enough, Law's old employer) made with Jose to turn out a net negative, but after Jose's 2011 season, odds are about 1 in 100 that this can happen.

    What a two-month period it was. And it shows us how we award extra points. They are awarded when a player exceeds a .500 OBP and a .700 SLG over a two-month period. Bautista is the only hitter in 2011 to be awarded these bonus points. [EDIT: there's an omission in the chart...Mark Teixeira should be awarded a point for his 15HRs. We'll fix that at the end: it will have little or no impact on the final results.]

    On to May-June:





















    By the end of June, the Red Sox were firing on all cylinders (before Kevin Youkilis began to give ground to nagging injuries). And we haven't yet seen the rise of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, either--that's coming. [EDIT: Mark Teixeira again shows us another area where it's possible to add bonus points, that area being in isolated power. His .300 ISO despite a very indifferent batting average reflects his league-leading HR total for May-June. It's not included here because we applied only when the player didn't get points for HRs and RBIs in the "epicycle."]

    Bautista is coming down to merely superstar--as opposed to superhuman--levels.

    Look quickly, for this is the only appearance of Alex Rodriguez on these charts.

    On to June-July:






















    As noted above, witness the rise of Pedroia and Ellsbury. In this two-month snapshot, the Red Sox have five hitters on this list--the most that any team was able to place in any "epicycle." (The Rangers have four in June-July--Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, and Michael Young. The Mike Napoli Era is about to begin...)

    Another interesting thing to notice, though it's a bit off-topic here, is the difference in Adrian Gonzalez' walk totals this year, when he was surrounded by a very strong supporting crew in Boston, from what those numbers looked like over the past few years in San Diego.

    Note the nice, but otherwise unnoticed two-month stretch from Nick Swisher.

    Also notice how close the OPS values are for Jose Bautista and Mark Reynolds here. One an odds-on MVP candidate, and the other the "all or nothing" king of the breeze. In any "epicycle" there will be a few strange bedfellows...

    Pedroia just misses bonus points for HR and RBI, which may cause some teeth-gnashing somewhere. We could talked into giving a bonus point for a 1.100+ OPS over an "epicycle," given that it's something that happened only four times during the season in the AL. But we didn't do it this time.

    Now let's look at July-August:

















    A very good hitting epicycle, we cut it off at a higher level than in the previous snapshots. Bautista, after a slow (for him, at least) June-July, got back in the groove in August to challenge for the top spot in OPS. However, top dog here is clearly Mike Napoli (the man Mike Scioscia disinvited to dinner).

    We see the late-season ascendance of Ellsbury and Ortiz, and here is the power surge from Curtis Granderson (a .328 ISO, just under Bautista's .336).

    The sabe crowd will decry this idea, but should we give a point for a .350+ BA? It happened only ten times across the five AL epicycles in 2011. It's not part of the system at the present.

    Finally, the "last epicycle" (August-September):



    If not .350, how about .400? Miguel Cabrera is the only player in baseball during 2011 to have a two-month stretch where he hit .400+. We're inclined to think that we shouldn't bother with BA, but it's at least worth discussing. In a few of these years, such tiny point increments could make a difference as to whom the Ptolemaic system sees as the MVP. (If you're paying attention to the Tot column as it's been floating by, however, you'll know that 2011 is not going to be one of those years.)

    We stuck Pedroia on here just to show how much his performance cooled off as the season moved toward its end. Surprisingly, as measured by OPS, Ortiz was the Sox' best hitter in August-September, despite Ellsbury's power surge.

    Down in seventh place for the "last epicycle," we see Jose Bautista coasting home. We'd written back in August that we felt the race was a blanket-toss between him and Gonzalez and Granderson. Note that those two guys faded away more than he did.

    Meanwhile, Cabrera and Napoli are charging down the stretch, and it's probably not that much of a coincidence that their two respective teams had the best records during September.

    Should there be another point added for runs scored minus runs scored on homers? Do we want to credit someone for the spikiness of their ability to score in a concentrated portion of the year? The standard there might be 30 more runs scored than runs scored on HRs, with a minimum of 10 HRs hit over the epicycle. We would have awarded this eight times over the course of five AL epicycles. Ian Kinsler is the one who did it in August-September.

    So, after all that, we add up the Ptolemaic points, factor in the rankings for OPS+ and WAR, add from left to right across your dial, and we wind up with the not-especially-surprising conclusion that Jose Bautista is the AL's 2011 MVP. If we'd had this method up and running in August, we wouldn't have suggested that we simply throw a blanket over Jose, Adrian and Curtis.

    This (at left) would be the order of voting that we'd place on any MVP ballot that we were asked to fill out.

    What about Justin Verlander, you ask? Earlier we'd suggested that the Tigers' ace could be a consideration in the voting if he was able to win 25 games, with his other stats remaining intact. That was a bit too simplistic. A pitcher really needs to have two factors going to crash into the MVP race, especially given that there is a separate award handed out for their achievements. They need to win a huge percentage of their games and they need to excel at all the other stats--not just leading the league, but doing so at a historically rarified level.

    Sandy Koufax' 1963 MVP award can speak to some of these issues, though it will be controversial to some because his ERA+, as measured by the standard method for computing park factors, is too low to be considered dominant (though the WAR data, compiled from total runs allowed and a method that rewards quantity of work as well as quality, contradicts this conclusion). 

    Koufax won 20 more games than he lost--that seems like a good starting benchmark for letting a pitcher into the discussion. His team went 34-6 in his starts--that's a matter of luck (and good relief pitching), but it's something that needs to be given some weight when determining the point when a pitcher crosses over into MVP territory.


    Verlander is right on the cusp in terms of personal wins, but his team was 25-9 in his total games. Great, but not historic. His expected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed in the games he participated in is .747. His team's record in those games was .735 (25-9). Koufax' expected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed was .806. That works out to 32-8 over the games he participated in. So the Dodgers did a little better than that projection (2 games), but it's not an outrageous amount. The Tigers came in just about right on Verlander's projection (about two-fifths of a win low, actually).


    To crash into an MVP race as well as the Cy Young race, a pitcher should at least score .800 on his expected winning percentage using runs scored/runs allowed. Verlander had a great season--he's a Cy Young winner for sure. But he's just below the threshold of being let into the MVP discussion as we see it.

    Is he a better candidate than many of the hitters at the top of the Ptolemaic charts? Absolutely. If the concept of separation wasn't something that we considered to be important, he'd at least be fifth on the list, and possibly as high as third. But we have an award for pitchers already, and we should really reserve crossover for cases that are historically unique, that are based on the context of the individual season.

    The conclusion here is that we shouldn't consider a pitcher for MVP at all unless we can demonstrate that he should be voted #1. Koufax in '63 has a case to be made for that, while granting that some of his stats (especially when adjusted) can be used as counterarguments. Verlander only has his WAR total to make the case for him, and while that's impressive, it's not quite enough given the principles discussed above. Clearly, YMMV.

Cupcake Skirts







    Bom Domingo!!

    Have a Good Sunday!!

    source: fashiongonerogue| tinylights


Dream colors are Allowed in Winter






    A paisagem editorial de Inverno nem sempre tem que ser feita de cores saturadas e escuras, embora como sabem eu também aprecie esse estilo.
    Selecciono geralmente trabalhos heterogéneos, representativos de várias percepções estéticas, mas com os quais eu de alguma forma me identifique, que me envolvam de alguma maneira, pela cor, pela luz, pelas peças...acho que o "gosto" resulta da mistura de todos estes componentes deveras importantes e de mais alguns (senão mais importantes) que não se conseguem transcrever por palavras...talvez por isso a estética seja sempre uma disciplina com algo por explorar, porque a percepção de cada pessoa ainda que possa ser submetida a regras e dogmas nunca vai deixar de ser absolutamente indefinida e é esse o encanto afinal!
    ...

    Retomando este editorial (depois da divagação)...as peças mais sonhadoras da estação, desde Prada, Missoni e Celine, foram envoltas numa atmosfera leve e luminosa, (quase a lembrar as personagens das fábulas) e complementadas por uma maquilhagem colorida,divertida e despretensiosa a contrariar o mood típico de Inverno



    The winter editorials does not always have to have saturated and dark colors, although I also enjoy this style.
    I usually select heterogeneous editorials, that are representative of various esthetic perspectives, but with which I somehow identify, that involve me in some way, by the color, the light, for fashion pieces ... I think the "taste" results from the mixture of all these components and some others (if not more important) that you can not transcribe for words ... so maybe is because of that that the aesthetic is always a discipline with something to explore, because the perception of each person even though it may be subjected to rules and dogmas will be always absolutely indefinite
    ...

    Returning to this editorial ... the more dreamy fashion pieces of the season, from Prada, Missoni and Celine were wrapped in a light and bright atmosphere (that almost remember me the characters from fables) and thay are complemented by a colorful makeup, fun and unpretentious


    Angela Lindvall by Catherine Servel for Allure Korea November 2011


.FREE.PEOPLE.







    Acho o styling deste editorial da FREE PEOPLE refrescante, os lookbooks da marca percorreram os estilos de várias décadas, este testemunha o último capitulo, a actualidade, verdadeiro "melting pot" de estilos e influências...eclético, "cuidadosamente" relaxado sem ser desordenado e com uma abordagem revigorada do estilo casual ou mesmo grunge com toques vintage...em suma, o reflexo e "indefinição" definida do que é hoje a moda global, uma miríade de peças similares, mas que se distinguem e diferenciam através da construção pessoal de cada indivíduo, e do que acarreta consigo, personalidade, cultura, passado...e é isso, (esse factor especial) que todas as marcas a cada nova estação tentam captar e reinventar...



    The styling of this editorial of the brand FREE PEOPLE is absolutely refreshing, the lookbooks of the brand show the styles of several decades, this editorial reveal the final chapter, the present, a "melting pot" of styles and influences ... eclectic, "carefully" relaxed without being messy and that makes a reinvigorated approach to the casual style or even grunge style with touches of vintage ... is the "undefined" definition of what is now the global fashion, a myriad of similar pieces, but that are differentiated by the construction and personality of each person, that carries with it culture, past ... and that is what all the brands try to reinvent each new season ...


    source: Elsa Hosk, Chrishell Stubbs & Tallulah Morton for Free People “Through the Decades” Book by Alexei Hay

In the Land of the Wolf


    Eniko Richardson 04 Eniko Mihalik by Terry Richardson for <i>Harpers Bazaar US</i> November 2011








    A luxuriante paisagem branca contrasta com as texturas e cores quentes e saturadas das peças pesadas e imponentes de Inverno, criando em cada fotografia cenários exuberantes e suaves, mas ao mesmo tempo selvagens e agrestes como a natureza crua das escarpas cobertas de neve...degladiam-se os elementos...

    The luxurious white winter landscape contrasts with the saturated colors and heavy textures of the Winter pieces, on each photograph are created exuberant scenarios that at same time are soft and wild as the Winter


    Eniko Mihalik by Terry Richardson for Harper’s Bazaar US November 2011


ANATOMIZING POST-SEASON MULTI-HOMER GAMES

    While we are holding our breath to see if the infamous BBBA "voodoo" will bring us a seven-game series, it's a good time to thank Tony LaRussa, whose overwrought genius has been in roadkill mode over the past week, taking his team from what could have been a five-game closeout into an uphill struggle requiring that magical (but increasingly elusive) seventh game. Perhaps this has been Tony's plan from the start.

    But before we press on to the ostensible subject of this post, we also want to put forth our favorite pet theory concerning Tony. He's not known for his modesty when it comes to managing or much of anything else, but this year he showed a great deal of personal courage by coming to work looking like something from a Ed Wood horror film.

    The theory is that it was all a smokescreen: this wasn't a case of the shingles. It was the aftermath of plastic surgery.

    Swelling is not unusual with a face lift, especially one that's centered around the eyes. The amount of swelling that Tony had was extremely unusual, of course, but that's because he is the kind of singular fellow that anomalous events happen to with uncharacteristic regularity.

    Such as his surreal managerial performance in Game Five, a classic case of someone's facelift being too tight and affecting the proper flow of blood in the brain.

    (Hey, you gotta admit that it's a more plausible reason that the one Tony offered up after Game Five went awry...)

    • •

    Let's move on. Albert Pujols' three-homer game in Game Three received a lot of justified attention, with the usual back-and-forth on the quality of the feat in terms of that most favored realm of baseball--Eternity. (It's especially privileged during October, the month where the game swells up like a peacock, coming dangerously close to overstaying its welcome.)

    We are not here to assess Albert's Arlington depth-charging in terms of such an eternal pantheon. We simply want to take a look at the entire event set--all 126 instances where a hitter has slugged at least two homers in a post-season game.

    First, let's note that the reporters (99.9% of them) underreported the incidence of three-homer games in the post-season. They focused on the World Series, where legendary players have been the only ones to manage the feat--legendary figures who, until Albert dared to join the ranks, were all Yankees.

    It seems only fair to report here that there are four other players who have hit three homers in a post-season game. Should we sweep these guys under the rug because they didn't happen to do it in the World Series? The post-season is now everything beyond the regular season, at least until Bud Selig's dying act as Kommisar serves to invert this relationship.

    The other players to hit three homers in a post season game are:

    --Bob Robertson, Pirates vs. Giants, 1971 NLCS
    --George Brett, Royals vs. Yankees, 1978 ALCS (the only 3-HR game in a losing cause)
    --Adam Kennedy, Angels vs. Yankees, 2002 ALCS
    --Adrian Beltre, Rangers vs. Rays, 2011 ALDS

    It's a more wide-ranging list, with one Hall of Famer (Brett), one possible Hall of Famer (Beltre), and two definite journeymen (Robertson and Kennedy).

    So what would you like to know about these 126 multi-homer games? You can find out exactly who they are by plopping yourself over to the page singled out herein at Forman et fils.

    As always, we start out with a chart that shows the basic frequency distribution of post-season HRs by decade. It's cheerfully noted at the outset that there is nothing especially electrifying here, given that the expansion of the post-season in 1969 and 1995 explains the jump in post-season HR. Still, it must be said that the jump is rather impressive despite this relativizing fact.

    Next up is a table showing the leaders for most multi-homer games in the post-season. It's impressive to note that even with all of the expanded opportunities to have multiple homer games, the all-time leader in this category is still Babe Ruth. The Bambino did it four times.

    The only other player to do it more than twice is our old friend Manny Ramirez. We miss ol' Manny, and harbor a not-so-secret wish that he could have found a way to hang in there with the Rays and made at least one more post-season.

    The folks who've had two multi-HR games in the post-season are by and large a distinguished group, with the possible exception of a singular fellow named Willie Mays Aikens. Willie will certainly have his defenders: his lifetime OPS+ is 123, which isn't the worst of those players on this list. It's the cocaine and the prison record that makes Willie more than a bit infamous. The record that Willie might hold (this is one that Bill James probably knows, given his penchant for "popular crime") is the longest prison sentence handed out to a major-league baseball player (fourteen years). I'm guessing that it isn't the record. In any case, Aikens is one of only two players to have multiple-homer games in the same World Series: he pulled off this feat in 1980. Twenty-nine years later, Chase Utley became the second player to do it. Ironically, they both played for losing teams.

    This might be a good time to toss in a tidbit about players having multi-homer performances in the same game. This has happened three times, beginning with the only teammates to ever do it. Wanna take a guess? Yes, that's right, it's Ruth and that other guy--you know, the one named Lou Gehrig. They did it against the Cubs in Game Three of the 1932 World Series.

    The others? Troy O'Leary and Jim Thome did it in a game between Boston and Cleveland in the 1999 ALDS. Four years later Eric Karros and Chipper Jones did it in the 2003 NLDS, the one that pitted the Cubs vs. the Braves.

    Care to know which team has had the most post-season multi-HR games? C'mon, you already know the answer to that question. (Hint: it ain't the St. Louis Browns.) Our chart of the multi-HR games by team spells out the obvious, but it also tells you how often the team with the multi-HR performance proves to be the winning team. The effect is massive, as a certain class of analyst might say: teams have a collective 98-27 record in games where someone on their team hits two or more HRs (a .784 WPCT).

    The other thing that comes to light from perusing this table is the fact that the World Series still holds the edge in the overall number of multi-HR games (although that may be due to the head start that the Fall Classic enjoyed from 1903-68). Since 1969, the two rounds of division playoffs have accounted for 73% of the post-season multi-HR games: it's only a question of time before the non-World Series post-season will overtake the World Series in the overall list. After all, there are far more playoff games than World Series games.

    Finally, for those who must know: the breakdown by position for players who hit two or more homers in a post-season game. Totals as follows: 1B 24, LF 22, RF 21, CF 18, 3B 17, 2B 11, C 7, SS 4, DH 3.

THE KNIT







    As malhas de lã serão sempre a peça clássica e intemporal da estação mais fria, símbolo de conforto (acompanhadas de uma chávena de chá quente)... na sua versão mais usual e clássica, mas também desconstruídas e reinventadas como complemento perfeito de uns shorts e de uma boa dose de atitude...gosto muito da abordagem de todo o editorial, já que a fotografia a preto e branco exerce sobre mim um fascínio especial, as texturas, os contrastes e manchas de luz e o próprio baloiçar do vento são enfatizados, ou prestamos-lhe mais atenção devido à ausência de vários estímulos cromáticos...para mim são criadas imagens intemporais onde cada tema tratado se reforça em intensidade e força

    The knit sweaters will always be the classic and timeless piece of the coldest season, a symbol of comfort, accompanied by a cup of hot tea ... in a classical style, but also deconstructed and reinvented as the perfect complement of shorts and a good dose of attitude!!


    Vogue Paris November 2011

    Photographer: Claudia Knoepfel and Stefan Indlekofer

    Stylist: Capucine Safyurtlu

    Hair: Rita Marmor

    Make-Up: Benjamin Puckey

    Manicure: Kelly B

    Model: Magdalena Frackowiak


All because of the Collars












    A década de 40 é revisitada num misto entre um cenário de exploração despreocupada e um guarda-roupa de revivalismo muito marcado, conseguido graças aos vestidos "bem-comportados" da estação, entre Miu miu, Dolce & Gabbana e Marc Jacobs, onde irrompem inesperadamentes grandes golas brancas, de forma imperturbável e perfeita como complemento ás deliciosas ondas retro e a uma maquilhagem outonal com batom cor de ameixa
    ...



    The 40's fashion is revisited in this editorial, in a well done mixture between a scenario of carefree exploration and a  pristine revival wardrobe, achieved due to the "well-behaved" dresses of the season, including Miu Miu, Dolce & Gabbana and Marc Jacobs, in which unexpectedly appear large and perfect white collars as the perfect complement of the untouched retro waves and of the delicious plum lipstick
    ...


    source: fashiongonerogue - Frida Gustavsson by Andreas Öhlund for Elle Sweden



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